OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034

Global Market Trends at a Glance

  • Cereal Production: Projected to grow at 1.1% per year, primarily driven by yield improvements.
  • Biofuel Demand: Expected to increase at 0.9% annually, with Brazil, India, and Indonesia leading the growth.
  • Total Agricultural and Fish Production: Anticipated 14% growth by 2034, mostly from productivity in middle-income countries.
  • Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions: Agricultural sector emissions predicted to rise by 6% due to expanded activity.
  • Nutrition:
    • Per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish: +6% globally.
    • Lower-middle-income countries could see a 24% rise, while low-income countries will still fall short of recommended nutritional intake.

Biofuels vs. Food Security

  • Land Use Competition: Meeting India's E20 ethanol mandate could require 7.1 million hectares (about 3% of total cropped area), potentially diverting staple crops like maize and rice from food to fuel.
  • Water and Resource Strains: Ethanol production requires 8–12L of water per liter and more fertilizer, compounding resource stress.
  • Economic and Environmental Effects:
    • Feedstock-driven food price inflation threatens food affordability, especially among poor populations.
    • Expanding biofuel crops can cause biodiversity loss and deforestation, indirectly harming food systems.


Bar chart of key global agricultural market trends projected for 2025-2034

Policy Solutions for Sustainability

  • Feedstock Innovation: Third-generation (3G) ethanol technologies, such as those using microalgae or waste, offer sustainable alternatives.
  • Land Management: Focusing biofuel cultivation on marginal or wastelands to minimize competition with food crops.
  • Diverse Procurement: Broader Minimum Support Price (MSP) and food grains procurement to offset risks of monoculture.
  • Productivity Gains: Achieving a 15% improvement in agricultural productivity, alongside technological investments like precision farming, could potentially eliminate undernourishment and lower emissions by 7%.

At-a-Glance Table: Segment-wise Projections

Indicator Trend/Value Notes
Cereal Production +1.1%/year Driven by yield, not area expansion
Biofuel Demand +0.9%/year Highest growth: Brazil, India, Indonesia
Agri/Fish Output +14% by 2034 Middle-income countries lead
GHG Emissions (Agri) +6% by 2034 Environmental trade-off
Calorie Intake (Animal/Fish) +6% global, +24% lower-middle income Low-income nations lag
Food Security & Emissions -7% attainable If 15% productivity gain realized

About OECD and FAO

Organization Description Headquarters India’s Status
OECD Intergovernmental body for economic growth & trade (38 members) Paris, France Not a member, partner
FAO UN agency promoting global food security and sustainable agriculture Rome, Italy Full member

The OECD-FAO Outlook stresses the need for balanced, science-driven policy as the world navigates the intertwined challenges of food security, climate change, and competing land uses.